It will put the world at your fingertips, changing the ways you shop, play and learn. But when will the future arrive?
它会将世界置于你的指掌之中，改变你的购物、娱乐和学习等活动的方式。这种未来生活的前景何时才会变成现实呢？
Barbara Kantrowitz with Joshua Cooper Ramo
巴巴拉康特罗维茨，亚叔华库帕拉莫
To get an idea of what the future might bring, step into the past. At the Edison National Historical Site in West Orange, N. J., there's a room full of a dozen old phonograph machines. Some were built by Thomas Edison, who invented recorded sound in 1877, and others were produced by competitors. In the decades represented by the display, the concept and purpose of sound recording changed dramatically. Edison conceived of his phonograph as a business machine that would help people in distant places communicate. He intended to record voices – nothing more. His competitors envisionedthe greater potential for entertainment and art. Where he saw internal memos, someone else saw Beethoven.
由过去的历史可以推知未来。在新泽西州西奥兰治镇的爱迪生国家历史纪念馆里，有一个陈列留声机的展厅，里面陈列了十二台老式留声机。这些留声机有些是由托马斯o爱迪生制造的，正是他于1877年发明了留声技术;而另外的一些则是那些竞争对手们制造的。在这些展出的留声机所反映的那几十年的历史中，留声技术的概念和功用发生了巨大的变化。在爱迪生的认识里，留声机就是一种能帮助远隔两地的人们进行通讯交流的工具。他只想要录下人们的声音-一点也没想到别的，但那些竞争者们却想到了它在娱乐和艺术方面的更大发展潜力。爱迪生从留声机里看到了备忘记事本，别人却从中发现了贝多芬。
Someday, there may well be a similar memorial to the unfulfilled prophecies of the creators of the latest breakthrough-interactivity. Will it really change the world? With so much big money and so many big dreams pinned to an idea that is still largely on the drawing boards, there's no limit to the hype. Simply put, the ultimate promise is this: a huge amount of information available to anyone at the touch of a button, everything from airline schedules to esoteric scientific journals to video versions at oft-oft-off Broadway. Watching a movie won't be a passive experience.
将来某一天，完全有可能出现一个类似的纪念馆来纪念最新的突破性技术--互相作用技术发明者们的尚未实现的预言。这项技术真的能够改变世界吗?一个尚处于理论设计阶段的技术发展计划既得到巨额的资金投入，又成为人们无限的期望所系，也无怪乎其能够轰动一时了。其实，说白了，这一计划的最高期望目标是：任何人只要触动一个按钮即可得到大量的信息--从航空班机时刻表到深奥的专业杂志到最最新百老汇戏剧实验中心的戏剧录像节目，各种信息应有尽有。看电影将不再是一种消极被动的经历。
At various points, you'll click on alternative story lines and create your individualized version of "Terminator X II."
你可以一边看，一边随意改动任何一处的故事情节从而创造出具有自己的个人风格的"终结者12号"节目来。
Consumers will send as well as receive all kinds of data. Say you shoot a video that you think is particularly artsy.
消费者既能够接收，也可以发送各种各样的信息。
Bea, it out and make a small fortune by charging an untold number of viewers a tee for watching. Peter Jennings would be obsolete.
例如，你若能拍摄一部你认为很有艺术价值的录像片，将它播放出去，便可以通过向那些为数不少的观看该片者收费而发一笔小财。
Video-camera owners could record news they see and put it on the universal network.
彼得杰宁斯将不再闻名，所有持有摄像机的人都可以自己摄制新闻节目，然后通过环球通用信息网播放出去。
On the receiving end, the era of the no-brainer will have finally arrived.
而对于收看节目的人来说，无需费力调频道选节目的时代终于到来。
An electronic device called an "intelligent agent" would be programmed to know each viewer's preferences and make selections from the endless stream of data.
一种称作"智能助手"的电子装置可以通过编制好的程序掌握各个观看者的选择意向对无穷无尽的节目信息进行选择。
Viewers could select whatever they wanted just by pushing a button.
观看者只需按一下按钮就可得到想要的节目。
Sounds great in theory, but even the truest believers have a hard time when it comes to nailing down specifics about how it will actually work.
这在理论上听起来是棒极了，但一旦具体到究竟如何运作时，就连最真诚的信奉者也感到为难。
Will we control the data via the telephone, the TV, the personal computer or a combination of all of the above? When will it be available? Will it be cheap enough for everyone?
我们是通过电话、电视、家用电脑，还是上述几种方式的综合运用来支配资料?它何时可以上市?
How will we negotiate such a mass of images, facts and figures and still find time to sleep? Will government regulate messages sent out on this vast data highway?
它能便宜到人人都能买得起吗?我们怎样才能处理如此大量的图像、材料、数字而还有时间睡觉?政府会对通过这广阔的信息公路发出的信息进行调控吗?
And, frankly, what do we need all this stuff for anyway?
而且，坦率地讲，我们究竟要这些东西干什么呢?
The quick answer is: no one knows. "We're a long way from "Wild Palms'," says Diana Hawkins, who runs an interactive-TV consulting firm in Portola Valley, Calif. But even if the techno-chaos of that futuristic fantasy mini-series is far off, some consumers may indeed notice that their personal relationships with their TVs, telephones and computers will be entering a new and deeper phase within a year or two. Instead of playing rented tapes on their VCRs , they may be able to call up a movie from a library of thousands through a menu displayed on the TV. Game fanatics may be able to do the same from another electronic library filled with realistic video versions of arcade shoot-'em-ups. In-stead of flipping through the pages of J. Crew of Victoria's Secret, at-home shoppers may watch video catalogs with models demonstrating front and rear views of the latest gear. Some cable companies are also testing other interactive models that allow viewers to choose their own news or select camera angles for sporting events.
可以毫不犹豫地回答：谁也不知道。"要达到《野棕榈》里描写的发展水平还有一个很长的过程，"在加利福尼亚波托拉谷开办着一家互相作用电视咨询公司的黛安娜o霍金斯这样说道。不过，就算这个未来主义的小小的科幻电视系列片中描写的技术发展混乱现象还很遥远，但有些消费者可能已经真切地感觉到在一两年的时间内他们与电视机、电话和电脑之间的关系会进入一个新的更高级的阶段。他们将不必再去租录像带在录像机上放映，而有可能从电视上显示的成千上万的影片目录上选取一部影片。对电视游戏感兴趣的人也可以这样来利用另外一种藏有大量逼真的枪战游戏的电子资料馆。想买衣服的人也不必去翻阅杰克鲁服饰公司或是维多利亚服饰公司印制的新款式服装介绍，坐在家里便可以从电视上看到模特儿全方位地展示最新款式服装。一些有线电视公司也在探索其他的相互作用模式，设法使观众能按自己的兴趣选看新闻或选择观看体育比赛的视角。
While these developments are clever, fun and even convenient, they're not quite revolutionary. Denise Caruso, editor of Digital Media, a San Francisco-based industry newsletter, calls this " fakeinteractive," just one step past passive viewing, pure couch-potato mode. In the most common version of this scheme, consumers will communicate with the TV through the combination of a control box and their remote control, or, perhaps, the telephone.
尽管这些发明创造很聪明，很有趣，甚至带来很多便利，但还不算什么大的改革。设在旧金山的工业通讯杂志《数字媒介》的编辑丹尼斯o卡鲁索把这称作"假冒的相互作用"，只比被动观看前进一步，纯粹是一种懒散的老式观看电视的风尚。这一方案最常见的一种说法就是消费者通过一个操纵箱、他们的遥控器--也许还有电话--结合在一起，与电视沟通。
To some degree, viewers already have accepted a certain amount of fake interactivity by channel surfing with their remotes, ordering pay-for-view movies and running up their credit-card bills on the Home Shopping Network.
在某种程度上，观众已接受了一部分假冒的相互作用，如用遥控器快速选择频道，预定付钱观看的电视，以及利用居家购物网购物，以致信用卡帐单迅速上升。
Moving beyond phase one, into what Caruso calls "true interactive," will require major changes in the technological and regulatory infrastructure.
要跨过第一阶段，进入卡鲁索所谓的"真正相互作用"阶段，首先需要技术和基础设施方面有较大的变化。
Today's television cables will likely be replaced by fiber-optic cables, which are capable of transmitting much more data at higher speeds.
今天所用的那种电视电线可能被光纤电缆所代替，因为光纤电缆的传送信息量更大，传送速度更快。
Either a government agency or the communications industry itself will have to set a performance standard so that different networks can connect with each other.
为使不同的网络彼此连通，必须由政府机关或是通讯部门自己制定一个统一的运作标准。
At home, viewers may have to learn to use a TV monitor that functions more like a computer screen fronting for a gigantic hard disc full of all kinds of data, everything from games and movies to specially created programs.
电视接收器若是配上一个大容量硬盘，里面储存从游戏节目到影片到各种特制节目等各种信息，那么电视接收器的功能便颇有点类似计算机显示器屏幕了，观众们恐怕得经过学习才会使用。
The shows of the future may be the technological great grandchildren of current CD-ROM titles.
未来的节目可能是今天的CD-ROM(光盘只读存储器)视盘的技术后代。
These are compact discs that store data instead of music and can play on either television or computer screens.
CD-ROM视盘是一种储存各种其他信息而非音乐信息的光盘，它既可以在电视机屏幕上播放，也可以在计算机屏幕上播放。
To play CD-ROMs today, you need a special machine. There are at least four models on the market, and titles produced for one format won't play on another.
但今天放CD-ROM视盘需要用一种专用播放机，这种播放机市面上出售的至少有四种不同的型号，适于一种型号的播放机的视盘换到别种型号的播放机上便不能播放。
CD-ROMs do provide e glimpse of what the future might hold, however. A number of companies, including Newsweek, are developing multimedia products that combine text, video, sound and still photographs.
尽管如此，现有的这种视盘还是有助于我们窥视未来技术发展的前景。包括《新闻周刊》出版公司在内的许多家公司都在积极研制融图文声像于一体的多媒体产品。
The result is what may someday be a powerful new medium With no set story line as in a book or magazine.
其结果也许是将来某一天研制出一种新的信息传播媒体。这种新媒体不像一般书刊一样有固定的信息内容。
Users pick and choose information that interests them. Philips Interactive, for example, has dozens of titles, among them a tour of the Smithsonian, in which the viewer selects which corridor to enter by clicking on the screen. Other titles: Jazz Glants, a musical history, and Escape from CyberCity, an animated adventure game.
使用者可以从中任意选取自己感兴趣的信息。例如，菲利浦相互作用公司制作的几十种多媒体光盘中有一种光盘的内容是史密斯博物馆导游，观看者可通过屏幕操作选择要游览的陈列室。其他多媒体光盘有爵士乐大师和逃出塞北城等。爵士乐大师是音乐史剧，逃出塞北城是惊险动画游戏片。
Many investors are betting on entertainment as the most lucrative interactive market. But some industry observers predict the development of two parallel home markets, one catering to leisure activities and the other to businesses. Hawkins says the work-at-home market could be computer based and provide an outlet for teleconferencing and portable computing devices, like the Newton touted by Apple chairman John Soulley that can be carried in a pocket and runs on handwritten commands scribbled on a small screen. The entertainment market, primarily games and movies, would be centered on some kind of monitor.
许多投资者认定娱乐团是相互作用产品的最有利可图的市场，但一些研究工业发展动态的专家则预言相互作用产品将向两个平行方向发展，一为娱乐用品，一为办公用品。霍金斯认为，办公用品将以电脑为主，也包括电话会议设备和便携式计算器具，如苹果电脑公司总裁约翰o斯考莱极力称颂的牛顿便携机，它可以装入口袋中，可根据小屏幕上的手写指令运行。而主要是游戏和电影的娱乐产品则以某种监视器为主。
If all this comes to pass-still a very big if-the next step could be what Digital Media's Caruso calls complete viewer control. She says consumers would be a little like information cowboys, rounding up data from computer-based archives and information services. There will be thousands of channels delivered, Caruso thinks, through some combination of cable, telephone, satellite and cellular networks . To prevent getting trampled by a stampede of data, viewer s will rely on programmed electronic selectors that could go out into the info corral and rope in the subjects the viewer wants.
假如这些都能变成现实--这还是个很大的未知数--下一步的目标可能就是《数字媒介》杂志编辑卡鲁索所谓的完全观众控制。她说，消费者将会有点像是信息牛仔，因为他们像牛仔赶牛一样从电脑档案和信息网络中收集信息。卡鲁索认为，到那时信息传播是多途径的，电缆、电话、卫星和蜂窝电话网结合使用。为避免被泛滥成灾的巨量信息弄得晕头转向，消费者必须使用电子信息选择器来从大量信息中提取自己所需的内容。
Caruso's final frontier is what she calls video telephonya complete two-way link of video,audio and data. A user might stand in front of a monitor receiver and just talk and listen,communicating with whatever or whomever is Out There. Images and voices would be beamed back and forth. (At the very least,it would probably mean the end of anonymous obscene phone calls. ) There is no exact analogy to any technology we've seen before,says Red Burns,chair of the Interactive Telecommunications Program at New York University. Inter active means we are all involved. There is no viewer. Interactive is like a conversation.
卡鲁索的最终目标是她所称的电视电话，也就是一种集图像、声音和信息于一体的完全的双向通讯联络技术。这种电话的使用者只需站在电视接收器前即可与对方通话，并且声音和形象都能双向传递。(这样至少会结束打匿名猥亵电话的行为。)我们以前所见的任何一项技术都不能与之相提并论，纽约大学相互作用通讯工程研究室主任雷德o伯恩说。相互作用意味着我们大家全都参与其中，没有谁是旁观者。相互作用即是相互交流。
Interactivity may be the biggest buzzword of the moment,but convergence is a close second. It means different things to different people. To the moneymen,it means that everything will come together and they'll clean up. To scientists,it means that the technology has reached a critical point where fantasy could now become reality. Nicholas Negroponte,director of MIT's Media Lab,a leading think tank in this new world,remembers that back in the 1970s,a government agency gave him a grant on the condition that he remove the word multimedia from his proposal. They were afraid we would get one of Proxmire's Golden Fleece awards,he says. Now,politicians,from President Clinton on down,are falling over themselves to proclaim support for the new medium.
相互作用可能是目前使用频率最高的词，而辐合则紧随其后。该词的含义因人而异。对于金融家来说，它意味着一切都会趋于集中，而他们即可囊括一切。对科学家们来说，它意味着科学技术已发展到了使幻想变为现实的临界点。这一新领域的第一号智囊库--麻省理工学院媒介实验室主任尼古拉o尼格罗邦特回忆说，七十年代中，某政府机构在拨款支持他的研究计划时曾附加条件令他勿用多媒体一词。他们怕我们会得到(参议员)普罗斯麦的金羊毛奖，他说。但如今，自克林顿总统起，大小各级官员都纷纷表示他们支持这一新媒体。
These dreams are possible because researchers have made vast leaps in both the quality and quantity of data transmittal.
这些梦想之所以可能成为现实是因为科研人员在技术上所取得的进步使信息传播在质量上和数量上都大大提高了。
In the past decade, the amount of data that could be put on a silicon chip has doubled every year while the price has been cut in half. In 1960, a high-quality transistorcost several dollars. Today a chip with the capacity of 4 million transistors costs about a tenth of a cent per transistor.
最近十年中，集成电路片的信息储存量每年要翻一番，而其价格则每年要减一半。1960年，一个高质量晶体管价格要若干美元，而今一个容量相当于400万个晶体管的集成电路片的价格约为每个晶体管1/10美分。
Transmission-putting that information into the hands of everyone who wants it-is also much more efficient. Until now, data have been sent as a series of electrical signals along wires or cables or through the air as radio waves. But as the amount of data and the demand for them have increased, these electronic highways have become clogged. The solution: fiber optics.
信息传输--将信息输送到每个需要者手中--的效率也有了很大提高。直到现在，信息一直是以一连串电子信号的方式通过电线传输或以电波的形式通过空气传输。但随着信息量和信息需求量的增多，这些电子运输公路已形成堵塞。解决问题的办法是使用光纤电缆。
Both of these developments are possible because of digitalization , a mathematical scheme that translates data into the simplest form. Called binary formatting, the sys-tem expresses numbers and letters in a code using only 1 and 0. The letter A, for example, could be 00000. Z would be 11001. Originally, this code was stored as on-or-off electrical charges along the standard wires and cables; now it can be transmitted as pulses of light on the fiber-op-tic cables. Bringing high-speed computers into the loop means that much more complicated information can be digitized: combinations of sound, still images, video and text. Multimedia is the wrong word, says MIT's Negroponte. Everything has now become digitized, he says. We have created a unimedia, really. Bits are bits.
这两方面的发展提高全赖于数字编码技术的应用。数字编码技术是将信息转换成最简单的数字形式的数学方法。这种方法称作二进制数字排列法，任何数字或字母都可以通过一个由1和0组成的编码来表示。比如，字母A可用00000表示，字母Z可用11001表示。起初，这种编码是以时断时续通过标准导线或电缆的电荷存储于计算机里的，而现在则可以光波的形式通过光纤电缆传送。只要将高速计算机接上光纤电线，就可以用数字编码方法来处理复杂得多的信息：声音、静止图像、电视画面和文字相结合的信息。麻省理工学院的尼格罗邦特认为，多媒体一词用得不当。他说，现在什么都可以用数字编码表示了。我们其实是创造了一种单媒体。数字可不能混淆。
At the Media Lab, Negroponte and other scientists are experimenting with the future. Pattie Maes, an expert in artificial intelligence, is trying to build some working "intelligent agents." (At a recent Media Lab conference, an ac-tor dressed as a butler tool. the stage, playing the part of an agent. That's interactive humor. ) In one program, Maes has created four "icons" on the computer screen representing agents with specific marching orders. For example, one dressed in a business suit seeks out business news. Al-though the agents are initially programmed, they actually learn by watching their master's preferences. She thinks that one day, agents may even communicate with agents from other users: "Let's say both you and I like the same movie reviews. Our agents could get together and deter-mine that we also had other interests in common. ” (Imagine the conversation: "Have I got a compatible user for you!")
在麻省理工学院媒介实验室里，尼格罗邦特和其他科学家正对未来的需要进行着实验研究工作。人工智能研究专家帕蒂米斯正致力于研制一种有实用价值的"智能型助手"。(在最近一次媒介实验室科学研讨会上，一个演员打扮成男管家，扮演智能助手的角色上台演出，这是相互作用式的幽默。)在一道程序中，米斯在计算机屏幕上创造出了四个人像，分别代表四个智能助手机器人而各有其具体的分工程序。比如，其中一个穿工作套服的智能助手机器人就负责搜寻业务信息。尽管这些机器人开始是编了程序的，但它们后来却可以通过观察主人的爱好来学到知识。她认为，终有一天，不同的用户使用的智能助手机器人之间能够互相进行交流："假如说你我两人都欣赏同样的电影评论，我们的智能助手机器人见面交谈后就会查知我们还有别的共同点。"(想一想这样的对话1 47该是多有意思："我可为你物色到一个好用户了吧!")
Maes and others concede that there's a dark side to all these bright dreams. Who will protect the privacy of consumers whose shopping, viewing and recreational habits are all fed into one cable-phone company data bank? And where there are agents, can counteragents be far behind: spies who might like to keep tabs on the activities of your electronic butlers? "Advertising companies see my presentations and get very excited," says Maes. Indeed, intelligent agents could be a gold mine of information. Advertisers aren't the only ones who could abuse the network if they were able to tap into it. The government could electronically spy on individuals; bosses could track employees.
米斯和其他科学家都承认这些光明的前景也有其阴暗的一面。消费者购物、观看节目和娱乐等方面的兴趣习惯全都通过电缆电话存储于某个公司的数据库里，谁来确保他们的隐私呢?而且，既然已有了智能助手，是否不久即会出现反助手，即时时监视着你的电子管家的一举一动的间谍呢?"一些广告公司看了我的报告后十分激动，"米斯说道。的确，智能助手可以源源不断地为你提供宝贵的信息，成为信息的金矿。只要可以偷偷接通信息网，不仅广告商可以滥用信息网，其他的人一样可以滥用信息网。政府可以通过电子手段对个人进行监视，老板也同样可以监视雇员。
If the tolls for using the information highway are too high, interactivity may widen the gap between the haves and the have-nots, the rich and wired vs. the poor and un-plugged. Some plans call for charging hundreds of dollars for the "black box" in the first phase of interactivity. Other plans are cheaper, but would still levy a fee for services used. One suggestion is to make much of the data free to all users, similar to the way public libraries lend out books. IF that happens, some experts think that the new technology may eventually have a democratizing effect. Access to a universal information library could equalize opportunity. It's a shift from elitism to populism," says Bernard Luskin, president of Philips Interactive Media of America.
如果对信息公路收费过高，相互作用就会扩大富人与穷人、有钱联网者和无钱联网者之间的差距。有的计划要求在相互作用的第一阶段对"黑盒子"收几百美元。其他计划便宜一些，但仍然要对使用这些设施收费。一种意见是免费向所有用户提供大部分资料，就跟公共图书馆对外借书一样。如果真能那样.有些专家认为新技术可能最终会有一种民主化的效果。人人有机会使用信息库可能使机会均等，"这是从杰出人物统治论转向类似人民党主义的做法，"美国菲利浦相互作用媒介公司的伯纳德o鲁斯金说道。
In the next few years there's likely to be considerable debate over the realistic presentation of violence in the new generation of video games, which will include viewer -directed movies. It's one thing to zap a cartoon mutant in an arcade , quite another when clicking on the screen means shooting bullets and spilling blood from a human. Would you want your child-or any child-to play that game?
未来几年中，社会上可能会掀起一股辩论热潮，讨论包括观众导演的电影节目的新一代电视游戏节目中以逼真的手段来表现暴力行为的问题。在电视游戏娱乐厅的游戏节目中打死一个动画人物是一回事，但当你打开电视机就可以对一个真人射击并使其流血时，那便是完全不同的另一回事了。难道你希望你的孩子--或是任何别的孩子--玩这种游戏吗?
At this point, so much is still speculation. While the big players and major thinker s spin predictions, it's quite possible that some entrepreneur in a garage is coming up with a really new idea that will for ever alter the best-laid plans. "What we are looking at now is just the first generation," says Stephen Benton of MIT's Media Lab. In that case, the best advice is: hang on for the ride.
目前，这一切还都属猜测假想之事。在那些大投机家和设计师们为这一计划大肆宣传制造舆论的同时，很有可能某位企业家的头脑中会突然产生一个全新的设想，从而完全推翻他们最周密的计划。麻省理工学院媒介实验室的斯蒂芬o本顿说："我们现在所看到的只是第一代。"既然如此，我们且拭目以待吧。
(From Newsweek)
(选自《新闻周刊》1993年5月31日)
