New microtechnology will transform society
新生的微型技术将使社会发生巨变
It is tiny, only about a quarter of an inch square, and quite flat. Under a microscope, it resembles a stylized Navaho rug or the aerial view of a railroad switching yard. Like the grains of sand on a beach, it is made mostly of silicon,next to oxygen the most abundant element on the surface of the earth.
这是一个极小的薄片，只有大约四分之一英寸见方。在显微镜下看起来，它就像一幅繁花似锦的那伐鹤地毯，或是一幅铁路调车场的鸟瞰图。像海滩上的沙粒一样，它的主要成分是硅--地球表面除氧之外蕴含量最为丰富的元素。
Yet this inert fleck-still unfamiliar to the vast majority of Americans-has astonishing powers that are already transforming society. For the so-called miracle chip has a calculating capability equal to that of a room-size computer of only 25 year s ago. Unlike the hulking Calibans of vacuum tubes and tangled wires from which it evolved,it is cheap, easy to mass produce, fast, infinitely versatile and convenient.
然而，这种惰性小薄片--大多数美国人尚不熟悉--却具有惊人的本领，正在使我们的社会发生着巨变。这种被称为神奇的集成电路片的东西有着与二十五年前制造出的足有一间房子大的老式计算机相同的计算能力。那种老式计算机内有许许多多的真空电子管和乱麻似的导线，又大又笨，形似怪物。集成电路片是由老式计算机衍化而来的，所不同的是它造价低廉，易于批量生产，计算速度快，功能繁多，使用方便。
The miracle chip represents a development in the technology of mankind that over the past few years has acquired the force and significance associated with the development of hand tools or the discovery of the steam engine. Just as the Industrial Revolution took over an immense range of tasks from men's muscles and enormously expanded productivity, so the microcomputer is rapidly assuming huge burdens of drudgery from the human brain and thereby expanding the mind's capacities in ways that man has only begun to grasp. With the chip, amazing feats of memory and execution become possible in everything from automobile engines to universities and hospitals, from farms to banks and corporate offices, from outer space to a baby's nursery.
神奇的集成电路片代表了人类科技的新发展。近几年来，这项技术的发展势头之迅猛和意义之深远足可与人类历史上生产工具的出现和蒸汽机的发明相提并论。正如工业革命替人类承担了大量繁重的体力劳动，并极大地发展了生产力一样，微型计算机正迅速地替人类承担起大量繁重的脑力劳动，并以人们现在才开始掌握的各种方式扩大了人脑的功能。有了集成电路片，计算机存储信息和执行指令的惊人本领就在以汽车发动机到大学和医院，从农场到银行和公司办公室，从外层空间到托儿所等各个领域发挥作用。
Living: Pushbutton Power
日常生活：按钮的神通
It is 7: 30 a. m. As the alarm clock burrs, the bedroom curtains swing silently apart, the Venetian blinds snap up and the thermostat boosts the heat to a cozy 70. The percolator in the kitchen starts burbling; the back door opens to let out the dog. The TV set blinks on with the day's first newscast: a selective rundown (ordered up the night before) of all the latest worldwide events affecting the economy-legislative, political, monetary. After the news on TV comes the morning mail, from correspondents who have dictated their messages into the computer network. The latter-day Aladdin, still snugly abed, then presses a button on a bedside box and issues a string of business and personal memos, which appear instantly on the genie screen. After his shower, which has turned itself on at exactly the right temperature at the right minute, Mr.A. is alerted by a buzzer and a blue light on the screen. His boss, the company president, is on his way to the office. A. dresses and saunters out to the car. The engine, of course, is running...
早晨七点半钟，闹钟铃声一响，卧室的窗帘轻轻地自动往两边分开，百叶遮阳帘啪地一声向上卷起，恒温器将室温上调到令人惬意的华氏七十度。厨房里的咖啡壶开始咕咕作响;后门自动打开放狗子出去。电视机荧光屏闪亮，开始播放当天的第一套新闻节目，这是(头天晚上预设好的)选择性新闻提要，内容包括世界上最近发生的一切对经济有影响的，涉及立法、政治以及金融方面的重大事件。新闻播完后，屏幕上便接着显示出早晨收到的信函，来函者都是通过将信息输入计算机网络而将信函传递过来的。此时仍舒舒服服躺在床上的那位现代阿拉丁紧接着便按下床头柜上的一个按钮，发出一连串公私事务上的备忘录信息，这些信息立刻便出现在那魔幻似的屏幕上。浴室里淋浴器准时地自动打开，水温也调控得恰到好处。阿先生洗完淋浴后，即得到一阵蜂鸣器的响声和荧光屏上一道蓝光的提示。他的上司--公司总经理已经出发上班了。阿先生这才穿好衣服，步态从容地走到汽车边，他的汽车自然已经发动好了…
After her husband has kissed her goodbye, Alice A. concentrates on the screen for a read-out of comparative prices at the local merchants' and markets.
在丈夫与她吻别之后，艾丽斯o阿拉丁便全神贯注地审读着屏幕上显示出来的当地各家商店和市场的物价对照表。
Following eyeball-to-eyeball consultations with the butcher and the baker and the grocer on the tube, she hits a button to commandeer supplies for tonight's dinner party. Pressing a couple of keys on the kitchen terminal, she order s from the memory bank her favorite recipes , tells the machine to compute the ingredients for six servings, and directs the ovens to reach the correct temperature for each dish according to the recipe, starting at 7:15 p. m. Alice then joins a televised discussion of Byzantine art (which she has studied by computer). Later she wanders into the computer room where Al ("Laddy") Jr. has just learned from his headset that his drill in Latin verb conjugation was " groovy ".
在电视屏幕上与肉店、面包店和杂货店老板们进行面对面的商谈之后，她按下一个按钮，订购当天晚宴所需的各种物品。接着，她又按下厨房计算机终端设备上的几个按钮，从计算机存储器中调出一些她所喜爱的菜谱，指令计算机计算出六份饭菜所需的各种配料的数量，指示烤炉下午七点十五分点火，根据菜谱上的要求调节出烹饪各道菜时的合适温度。接下来，艾丽斯参加了一场拜占廷艺术电视讨论会(她是通过计算机学习拜占廷艺术的)。过后，她信步走进微机室。在那里，小阿拉迪刚从耳机中得知，他的拉丁语动词变位练习成绩"优良"。
Wellsian fantasy? Maybe. But while this matutinal scenario may still be years away, the basic technology is in xistence. Such painless, productive awakenings will in time be a familiar thing. And, barring headaches, tummy aches and heartaches, the American day should proceed as smoothly as it begins. All thanks to the miracle of the microcomputer, the super cheap chip that can electronically shoulder a vast array of boring, time-consuming tasks.
这完全是科学幻想吗?也许是吧。但是，尽管以上描述的那一连串发生在早晨的事情还要过若干年后才能变成现实，实现这一切所需的基本技术业已问世。像以上描述的那种早晨舒舒服服地起来，不费多大劲却能做好许多事情，这种情况将来会极为普通。只要没有头痛、胃痛和心痛，美国人一天的生活会过得像一天开始时一样顺畅。这一切全是由于微型计算机的神奇功能，使得那造价极低廉的集成电路片能用电子技术担负起大量令人厌烦又耗费时间的工作。
The microelectronic revolution promises to ease, enhance and simplify life in ways undreamed of even by the utopians. At home or office, routine chores will be performed with astonishing efficiency and speed. Leisure time, greatly increased, will be greatly enriched. Public education, so often a dreary and capricious process in the U. S., may be invested with the inspiriting quality of an Oxford tutorial-from preschool on. Medical care will be delivered with greater precision.
微型电子技术革命可望减轻生活负担，提高生活质量，简化生活程序，而且这些美好前景是连幻想家们做梦也没有想到过的。无论是家里还是办公室里，日常琐事都将以惊人的高效率和高速度得到处理;休闲时间不仅会大大增加，也会变得更加丰富多彩;在美国，常常是枯燥乏味、变化无常的公共教育也将会具有像牛津大学导师制教育那样令人振奋的质量--从学前教育开始即是这样。医疗卫生服务也会更加完善而少出差错。
Letters will not so easily go astray . It will be safer to walk the streets because people will not need to carry large amounts of cash; virtually all financial transactions will be conducted by computer. In the microelectronic village, the home will again be the center of society, as it was before the Industrial Revolution.
信件误投的事将不再会经常发生;在大街上行走会变得更加安全，因为人们再不必随身携带大量的现金，几乎所有的金融交易都将通过计算机来完成;在微型电子化社会里，家庭将再度成为社会活动的中心，就像工业革命前的情形一样。
Mass production of the miracle chip has already made possible home computer systems that sell for less than $800 – and prices will continue to fall. Many domestic de-vices that use electric power will be computerized. Eventually, the household computer will be as much a part of the home as the kitchen sink; it will program washing machines, burglar and fire alarms, sewing machines, a robot vacuum cleaner and a machine that will rinse and stack dirty dishes. When something goes wrong with an appliance a question to the computer will elicit repair instructions – in future generations, repairs will be made automatically. Energy costs will be cut by a computerized device that will direct heat to living areas where it is needed, and turn it down where it is not; the device's ubiquitous eye, sensing where people are at all times, will similarly turn the lights on and off as need-ed.
神奇的集成电路片的大规模生产，已经使家庭计算机系统的售价有可能低于八百美元--而且价格还将继续下跌。许许多多的家用电器都将由计算机来控制。终有一天，家用计算机将会像厨房的洗涤槽一样成为极普通的家庭日常用具;通过计算机程序来控制洗衣机、防盗防火报警器、缝纫机、机器人吸尘器和全自动洗碗机。一旦某种机器出了故障，只需问一下计算机即可马上调出修复指令--将来生产的换代计算机还会自动排除故障。能源消耗也可以通过一种计算机控制的装置得以降低，因为这种装置能自动地根据各生活区的需要送热，而对不需要的地区则关闭热源。该装置的那只万能的眼睛时时刻刻能感知到哪儿有人哪儿没人，因此，它同样可以根据需要开关电灯。
Paper clutter will disappear as home information management systems take over from memo pads, notebooks, files, bills and the kitchen bulletin board.
随着家用信息处理系统取代备忘簿、笔记本、文件夹、帐本和厨房记事板的功能，废纸堆将再也看不见了。
While it may be a number of year s before the average housewife can do her shopping by computer TV, the basic instrumentation is already in place in an ever-growing number of supermarkets.
尽管要等到若干年后普通的家庭主妇才能通过电脑电视采购物品，但达到这一目标的基本技术设备已在越来越多的超级市场里装置起来了。
The computer might appear to be a dehumanizing factor, but the opposite is in fact true.
表面看起来，计算机似是一种导致人类特性丧失的因素，但实际情况恰恰相反。
It is already leading the consumer society away from the mass-produced homogeneity of the assembly line.
计算机正引导着消费者群体摆脱由流水线大批生产出来的各种产品千篇一律的状况。
The chip will make it possible some day to have shoes and clothes made to order-the production commanded and directed by computer-within minutes.
将来总有一天，集成电路片会使根据顾客要求定制鞋子和衣服的程序--由计算机控制进行-有可能在几分钟内完成。
The custom-made object, now restricted to the rich, will be within everyone's reach.
目前这种定制生产的产品还只有少数富人能够享用，到那时便人人都可享用了。
In no area of American life is personal service so precious as in medical care.
在医疗卫生领域中，个人服务比在美国生活的其他任何领域都显得重要。
Here, too, the computer has be-come a humanizing factor;
在这个领域中，计算机的参与也同样会成为一个人性化的因素。
the patient tends to give a more candid account of his symptoms, and medical history to a machine programmed to ask the proper preliminary questions than to a harassed regimen and possibly intimidating doctor.
若由一台计算机按编好的程序来恰当地向病人提问以了解病情而不是由一位疲惫不堪、模样可能有点吓人的医生来询问病情的话，病人一定会更准确详尽地说出自己的症状、饮食习惯和病史。
At a few hospitals, computers are programmed not only to remind the pharmacy department to prepare prescriptions but also to alert nurses to give the proper dosage at the right time.
在有些医院里，计算机有编好的程序用来提醒药房按处方配药，并提示护士按时按量让患者服药。
Next to health, heart and home, happiness for mobile Americans depends upon the automobile. Computer technology may make the car, as we know it, a Smithsonian antique.
对于流动性强的美国人来说，除了健康、爱情和美满家庭之外，幸福还有赖于汽车。计算机技术有可能会使我们现在所熟悉的汽车成为博物馆里的古董。
In addition to the microprocessors under the hood that will help the auto operate more efficiently, tiny computers will ease tensions and make life simpler for the drive and passengers too.
除了装在发动机罩底上的微型处理器有助于提高汽车运行效率外，微型计算机还能简化汽车操纵程序，提高安全系数，使开车人和坐车人既放心又省心。
Ford Motor Co. now offers buyers of its Continental Mark Vs an option called miles to empty.
福特汽车公司现在已经可以向购买该公司所产大陆牌V型轿车的用户提供一种叫燃料里程计量器的东西。
At the push of a button, the driver can get a read-out on the amount of fuel in the tank, and the number of miles he can expect to go (at current speed) before a refill is necessary.
司机只需按下一个按钮，即可从表上看出油箱中的现存油量及在有必要重新加油前他的汽车所能行驶(以当时的行速)的里程数。
Driver s of General Motors 1978 Cadillac Seville will also be able to punch a button and find out the miles yet to go to a preset destination and the estimated arrival time. The ultimate auto will accommodate a pencil-sized portable phone capable of reaching any number in the world in seconds, automatic braking that will take over from a panicked driver, and a miniradar to avert collisions.
驾驶通用汽车公司一九七八年产的卡迪拉克牌塞维利亚型轿车的司机也享有类似的便利：只要按一个按钮，就能知道离预定的某个目的地尚有多少里程以及预计到达目的地的时间。将来生产出来的最高级的轿车上将会装备一个只有铅笔般大，却能在几秒钟内拨通世界上任何号码的移动电话，还会装备一个能代替措手不及的司机刹车的自动刹车装置和一个避免发生撞车事故的微型雷达。
The widest benefits of the electronic revolution (unlike those of most revolutions) will accrue to the young. Seymour Papert, professor of mathematics and education at M. I. T., estimates that there will be 5 million private computers in people's homes and available to students within two years; by 1982, he predicts, 80% upper middle class families will have computers "capable of playing important roles in the intellectual development of their children.” Says California Author Robert Albrecht, a pioneer of electronic education: "In schools, computers will be more common than slide projectors, movie film projectors and tape recorders. They'll be used from the moment school opens, through recess, through lunch period, and on as far into the day as the principal will keep the school open." Across the country, "these magical beasts", as they have been called, are assisting hassled, often incompetent teachers. They are revivifying soporific students, dangling and delivering intellectual challenges beyond the ken of most educators.
电子革命的最大、最多的好处(与其他几次革命不同)将体现在年轻人身上。据麻省理工学院数学和教育学教授塞摩尔o帕波特预测，两年之内进人家庭供学生用的个人电脑将达五百万台;他预测出，到一九八二年，百分之八十的上中层阶级的家庭将拥有"能对他们子女的智力开发起重要作用"的计算机。电子化教育的先驱、加利福尼亚作家罗伯特o阿布莱希特说过，"在学校里，计算机将比幻灯机、放影机和录音机更为常见。从学校一开门，到课间休息、午休，直至校长宣布放学，从头至尾计算机都会发生作用。"举国上下，"这些神奇的动物"一人们是这样称呼计算机的--都在为那些精疲力竭、力不从心的教师们助一臂之力。它们正在重新激起那些厌学的学生的学习热情，以多数教师尚未知悉的方式吸引着学生们并给他们以求知的动力。
For the mighty army of consumers, the ultimate applications of the computer revolution are still around the bend of a silicon circuit.
对广大消费者而言，要全面应用计算机革命的一切成果为时尚早。
It is estimated that there are at least 25,000 applications of the computer awaiting discovery.
据估计，计算机至少还有二万五千种用途有待我们去发现。
Notes The Economist:To ask what the applications are is like asking what are the applications of electricity.
《经济学家》杂志曾发表文章评论说，"要问计算机有多少种用途，就同问电有多少种用途一样。
Certainly the miracle chip will affect American life in ways both benign and productive.
神奇的集成电路片必然会以既有益又有效的方式影响美国生活，
The computer revolution is stimulating intellects, liberating limbs and propelling vmankind to a higher order of existence.
计算机革命正在促进人的智力发展，解放人的四肢，将人类生活提到一个更高的水平。
(from time, February 20, 1978)
(摘自《时代》，1978年2月20日)
