临近十一月的中期选举（mid-term elections），美国发生一系列新闻，都可能对选举结果产生影响。
这类多在十月发生，对十一月的选举产生或可能产生影响的新闻事件有一个政治术语名称：October surprise。
一些媒体文章对October surprise的定义或描述：
That's why everyone in politics either dreads or dreams of the "October surprise," the late-in-campaign event or issue that suddenly upends all calculations and delivers electoral victory.
https://www.npr.org/2018/10/28/661252823/october-is-almost-over-have-we-had-enough-surprises-yet
The term “October Surprise” was coined by a 1980s political operative but has ever since been appropriated by the media to describe unexpected political disasters in the twilight hours of the campaign. Sometimes they are intentionally positioned by political opponents to impact voters, often days before they head to the polls. They aren’t always successful, but they’ve become a staple of modern politics.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/strange-history-october-surprise-180960741/
On Saturday evening, when the New York Times released its explosive report that Donald Trump had claimed a $915 million loss on his 1995 taxes and possibly hadn’t paid federal taxes in the 18 years that followed, it was a clear sign that the election had entered a new phase. Though the revelation itself was astounding, the timing was anything but: Less than a day into the new month, 2016’s first “October surprise” had arrived.
Political history is littered with the charred remains of such late-in-the-election bombshells that scramble political calculus just as the stakes are at their highest. An “October surprise” can be happenstance or deliberately orchestrated; international (e.g.the outbreak of war) or domestic (e.g. a massive economic rally). Sometimes it’s personal, with a long-hidden skeleton spilling out from a candidate’scloset. It can save a political campaign as quickly as it can wreck one. And occasionally, it can even decide an election and set the course of the nation.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/october-surprises-214320
除了上面提到的特朗普逃税丑闻外，October surprise的例子还有很多。
October surprise最著名的例子之一发生—或者说没有发生—在1980年。当时尼克松与时任总统卡特的选战异常激烈。随着投票日期临近，共和党人担心卡特总统会在解决一年前爆发的伊朗人质危机上取得突破，获得选民支持，继而连任。人质危机最终并未在卡特任期内得到解决，尼克松成了那场选战的赢家。
2016年10月28日，美国总统大选临近最后关头。FBI当天宣布将重启对希拉里·克林顿“邮件门”的调查，对最后的选举结果产生重大影响。克林顿自己也在选举后将失败归咎于该调查。
国内媒体几乎一致将October surprise译为“十月惊奇”：
从前文提到的这些例子不难看出，无论是特朗普逃税还是FBI调查克林顿，这里的surprise都有因为没有料到而感到的“惊”，没有因为无法解释而感到的“奇”。
有了“惊”这一个字也不足以翻译October surprise。这种surprise的结果，即可能对选举结果产生重大影响，也是surprise词义的一部分。也就是说，这里的surprise包含两层含义：新闻刚被爆出时人们的惊讶和新闻可能对选举结果产生的影响。因此，或可将October surprise译为“十月突变”。
（中国翻译研究院）
